Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (2024)

Are England actually good under Gareth Southgate or are they just lucky?

Analysing the difficulty level of England’s tournament runs helps answer that question.

Using FIFA’s world rankings is not a perfect science, with places decided by a points system awarded based on a nation’s results in FIFA-recognised full international matches. Belgium held the No 1 spot between October 2018 and February 2022, but did not win a single trophy. They do, however, provide a quantitative metric that, at the very least, gives a fair idea of which teams are considered to be the best at any given time.

The Euro 2024 final against Spain marks England’s 70th tournament fixture since FIFA’s rankings were introduced. England have competed in 15 major tournaments (eight appearances at the World Cup and seven at the European Championship) since 1992.

To work out the difficulty rating, we have added up the world ranking of every team they faced in those tournaments as it was at the time, and divided that by the number of games they played at that tournament. The lower the number, the better the quality of the opponent and the harder that tournament was (at least on paper).

Here is what the data says.

England’s easiest runs

Tournament

Average world ranking of opponents

World Cup 2006

36 (Sweden, Paraguay, Trindad and Tobago, Ecuador, Portugal)

Euro 2016

29 (Wales, Slovakia, Russia, Iceland)

Euro 2024

27 (Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Spain)

Euro 2012

22 (France, Ukraine, Sweden, Italy)

Euro 2004

21 (France, Switzerland, Croatia, Portugal)

Statistically speaking, the easiest group England have ever had was at the 2006 World Cup, when they faced Paraguay (35th), Trinidad and Tobago (91st) and Sweden (14th). Games against Ecuador (30th) in the last 16 and Portugal (eighth) in the quarter-finals lowered the overall average to 36, the kindest run they have had at any tournament.

Advertisement

In 2016, the Euros expanded from 16 teams to 24, and England put their stamp on that format tweak by losing in historic fashion against Iceland. Roy Hodgson’s team only played four games, all, against lower-ranked teams at that tournament in Wales (12th), Slovakia (25th), Russia (56th) and Iceland (21st).

Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (1)

England exited Euro 2016 at the hands of Iceland, then ranked 21st in the world (Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

The recent success England have had at the last two Euros can be partially explained by the fact that their draws at Euro 2024 and Euro 2020 represent their third and sixth ‘easiest’ draws since 1992. Euro 2020 actually took place in 2021, so we have used the 2021 world rankings for that tournament.

Being drawn into the same group as France seems daunting, but at Euro 2012, they were not the force they later became towards the end of the 2010s.

France were ranked 17th in the world in 2012 while England were ranked sixth when they were both in the same group at Euro 2012. They drew that match 1-1 and were beaten by Italy (4th) on penalties in the quarter-finals.

England’s hardest runs

Tournament

Average world ranking of opponents

Euro 2000

10 (Portugal, Romania, Germany)

Euro 1992

11 (France, Denmark, Sweden)

World Cup 2014

12 (Italy, Uruguay, Costa Rica)

World Cup 2002

14 (Sweden, Argentina, Nigeria, Denmark, Brazil)

World Cup 2022

17 (USA, Iran, Wales, Senegal, France)

England’s two toughest tournaments, according to the strength of their opposition’s world rankings, were Euro 2000 and Euro 1992.

In both, England were eliminated in the group stages, finishing third and fourth.

England also bottomed out at the 2014 World Cup. They were last in a group with Italy (11th), Uruguay (10th) and Costa Rica (16th) after losing 2-1 to the former two sides, and drawing 0-0 with the latter.

At the 2002 World Cup, the overall average world ranking is slightly skewed by how England faced the No 1 ranked team in the world, Brazil, in the quarter-final and the fifth-ranked team, Argentina, in the group stages. Their other opponents were Sweden (25th), Nigeria (29th) and Denmark (12th).

England’s run at the last World Cup in 2022 was their fifth-hardest run, according to their opponents’ world rankings.

Southgate’s side drew with the second-highest-ranked team they faced (the United States, 13th) and lost to their highest-ranked opponent (France, third), which brings us to the next big talking point.

Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (2)

England’s record against ‘big teams’

Since 1992, England have played 22 matches at the World Cup or Euros against teams ranked in the top 10 in the world rankings.

Those nations include Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, as well as Denmark (ninth in 1992 and 2021), Sweden (fourth in 1992) and Uruguay (10th in 2014).

Advertisement

England have also faced opponents who might also be considered among the best in the world during periods when those nations were ranked outside of the top 10.

For the sake of clarity, we have also accounted for six fixtures against France (ranked 19th in 1992 and ranked 17th in 2012), Germany (ranked 11th in 2000 and ranked 12th in 2021), Italy (ranked 11th in 2014) and Croatia (ranked 11th in 2021) in our analysis. In total, there have been 28 instances of England facing a ‘big team’ at the World Cup or Euros since 1992.

Before Southgate (from 2016 to the present day), the following managers have also been in charge of England at a major tournament since 1992: Graham Taylor (1990-93), Terry Venables (1994-96), Glenn Hoddle (1996-99), Kevin Keegan (1999-2000), Sven-Goran Eriksson (2001-06), Fabio Capello (2008-12) and Roy Hodgson (2012-16).

The table below outlines how Southgate’s win percentage against ‘big teams’ at tournaments compares to his predecessors.

Gareth Southgate

Every other England manager

44%

21%

Southgate has faced nine matches against ‘big teams’ at tournaments while the other seven managers to lead England at a tournament have played in 19 matches between them.

England have recorded as many victories in the last eight years against ‘big teams’ as in the previous 24 years, with Southgate winning four of his nine fixtures.

Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (3)

England beat Germany, who were ranked 12th in the world, in the last 16 of Euro 2020 (Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

Apart from Venables, who managed two wins against highly ranked teams in the same tournament, no other England manager has recorded more than one victory since 1992, with zero wins in the knockout rounds.

Opponent

Score

Round

Tournament

Year

World ranking

Manager

Netherlands

2-1

Semi-finals

Euros

2024

7

Southgate

Croatia

1-0

Group stage

Euros

2020

11

Southgate

Germany

2-0

Last 16

Euros

2020

12

Southgate

Denmark

2-1

Semi-finals

Euros

2020

9

Southgate

Argentina

1-0

Group stage

World Cup

2002

5

Eriksson

Germany

1-0

Group stage

Euros

2000

11

Keegan

Netherlands

4-1

Group stage

Euros

1996

9

Venables

Spain

0-0 (penalties)

Quarter-finals

Euros

1996

8

Venables

The obvious caveat is that England did win the World Cup in 1966 — it is not as if they have never beaten favoured opponents — but there is not a clear metric that allows us to categorise teams before FIFA’s world rankings were introduced in 1992, hence why the nation’s greatest triumph to date was excluded here.

Advertisement

There was an 18-year gap between 2002 and 2020 in which England did not beat a team ranked in the top 10 when they faced them. That period also includes the 2018 World Cup, Southgate’s first tournament as England manager.

During the knockout rounds in Russia, England beat two teams ranked outside of the top 10 — Colombia (12th) and Sweden (14th) — before losing 2-1 to Croatia (fourth) in the semi-finals. They also lost twice to the highest-ranked team in the world at the time, Belgium, in the group stage (1-0) and third-place play-off (2-0).

Failing to beat higher-ranked teams at the 2018 World Cup planted the seed that Southgate has had an easy run. That trend reversed somewhat at Euro 2020, with three wins against ‘big teams’, but failing to beat the U.S. and eventual finalists France at the 2022 World Cup reignited the conversation.

At Euro 2024, England are in the final but have only faced one team ranked in the top 10 in the Netherlands. How many other England teams from the past have experienced something similar?

The luck of the draw

At Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, only Belgium and France were ranked higher than England. On both occasions, those teams were on the other side of the draw in the knockout rounds.

At Euro 2024, the highest-ranked team in England’s side of the bracket in the knockout rounds before the final was the Netherlands (seventh), while at Euro 2020, it was Denmark (ninth). England beat both of those teams in the semi-finals.

It is not as simple as saying that because FIFA ranks a team higher in its world rankings they would be the favourites against every team they face with a lower ranking — but it is a useful guideline when setting expectations.

Southgate has managed England at four major tournaments. The other seven managers since 1992 have overseen the other 11. The table below illustrates the average world ranking of opponents in every knockout round.

Southgate

Other England managers

Last 16

22

14

Quarter-finals

15

6

Semi-finals

6

2

Final

6

N/A

There is an argument to be made that previous England teams might have gone further if they faced teams they would expect to play in the last 16 in the quarter-finals instead.

From 1996 to 2012, these were England’s opponents in quarter-finals at major tournaments: Spain, Brazil, Portugal (twice) and Italy. England’s victory against Spain on penalties at Euro 1996 represents the only win from those five matches.

Advertisement

Under Southgate, the teams England have faced at the same stage include Sweden, Ukraine, France and Switzerland, which has resulted in three wins from four.

In the semi-finals, the average world ranking of the teams England have faced under Southgate is eight. On the one occasion since 1992 when England reached the final four before 2016, Germany were ranked second in the world at Euro 1996.

Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (4)

Gareth Southgate’s England face Spain in the Euro 2024 final on Sunday (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

If England, ranked fifth, can defeat Spain, ranked eighth, in Sunday’s Euro 2024 final, no England fan will care about how lucky they were to avoid ‘big teams’ as often as they have under Southgate.

But if they do not win the competition, this might represent one of the biggest ‘what if?’ periods in English football.

The opportunities Southgate’s England team have had in terms of who they have been drawn against in the latter rounds of major tournaments is a luxury previous England teams were never able to enjoy.

(Top photo: Adrian Dennis /AFP via Getty Images)

Are Southgate's England lucky? What FIFA's world rankings tell us about their tournament runs (2024)

FAQs

Has England won any football tournament? ›

Gareth Southgate was the most recent manager of the team, stepping down in July 2024 following Euro 2024. England won the 1966 FIFA World Cup final on home soil, making it one of eight nations to have won the World Cup.

Has England ever won a Euro tournament? ›

England won the FIFA World Cup in 1966 but have yet to win the UEFA European Championship, though they came close at EURO 2020, losing the final on penalties at Wembley. The Three Lions also reached the EURO 2024 final, where they narrowly lost against Spain.

How do World Cup rankings work? ›

The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking is determined using the Elo Model. This method adds or subtracts points for matches to or from a team's existing point total. The points which are added or subtracted are partially determined by: relative team strength.

When did Southgate become England manager? ›

He was first appointed as England men's senior manager in November 2016, following a successful spell as interim boss after the departure of Sam Allardyce the previous month.

How many world championships has England won? ›

With five wins, Brazil is the only team to have played in every tournament. The other World Cup winners are Germany and Italy, with four titles each; Argentina, with three titles; France and inaugural winner Uruguay, each with two titles; and England and Spain, with one title each.

Who is England's all time goal scorer? ›

Harry Kane extends his lead at the top of England men's all-time record goalscorers list after his EURO 2024 goal against the Netherlands.

What is the prediction for Spain vs England Euro 2024? ›

England Prediction. We are predicting Spain to win, with a 40.8% chance of advancing, based on the moneyline.

Has England ever won a major tournament? ›

Before that, England had last reached a major final in 1966, where they won the World Cup on home soil, and then the defeat this year against Spain at Euro 2024. Those three remain the only finals that the Three Lions have reached. But there have been a few semi-finals along the way.

Who is England's top goal scorer in the euro? ›

Kane is one of four men's players to have been top scorer at both a European Championship and a World Cup, something he achieved in 2018. “I told him that he is my top scorer because his save counts as a goal for me,” goalkeeper Unai Simón said.

Who is no 1 in FIFA ranking Argentina? ›

Individually for Argentina, Lionel Messi is the all-time most-capped player with 187 matches and the highest goalscorer with 109 goals. As of July 2024, Argentina ranks 1st in the FIFA Men's World Ranking. Argentina is known for having rivalries with Brazil, England, Germany, the Netherlands, Uruguay and France.

Where is Switzerland ranked in football? ›

Top 20 rankings as of 18 July 2024
RankChangeTeam
123Croatia
133Germany
142Morocco
154Switzerland
20 more rows

What do the standings mean in the World Cup? ›

Understanding World Cup Standings

A win is worth 3 points, a draw is worth 1 point, and a loss is worth 0 points. Consider the goal difference, this is the difference between the number of goals a team has scored and the number of goals they have conceded.

What team does Southgate support? ›

Is Southgate quitting as England manager? ›

In a statement, Southgate said it was "time for change" having managed the England team for 102 games. He first took charge of the Three Lions in autumn 2016.

What is Gareth Southgate's salary? ›

Southgate was handsomely rewarded for his tenure as England's manager, with an annual salary believed to be around £5m. This made him the highest-paid manager at this summer's Euros, earning slightly more than Germany's boss Julian Nagelsmann, who reportedly receives £4.8m.

When was the last time the England football team won a trophy? ›

In a historic final match against West Germany during the 1966 FIFA World Cup, England emerged victorious with a 4-2 win after extra time. Geoff Hurst became a national hero with his hat-trick, including a controversial goal that is still debated to this day (it definitely wasn't!).

What is the biggest football tournament in England? ›

The Football Association Challenge Cup, more commonly known as the FA Cup, is an annual knockout football competition in domestic English football. First played during the 1871–72 season, it is the oldest national football competition in the world.

When was the last time England men were in the World Cup final? ›

George's Park, England had notably reached the men's World Cup Final at Wembley in 1966, the women's EURO Final in 1984, the men's Learning Disabilities World Cup Final in Japan in 2022 and the women's EURO Final in Finland in 2009.

What are the major trophies in England? ›

*Major trophies: First Division/Premier League, FA Cup, League Cup, Charity Shield/Community Shield, European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Europa League, Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, European Cup Winners' Cup, UEFA Super Cup, FIFA Club World Cup, Intercontinental Cup .

References

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Sen. Emmett Berge

Last Updated:

Views: 5330

Rating: 5 / 5 (60 voted)

Reviews: 91% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Sen. Emmett Berge

Birthday: 1993-06-17

Address: 787 Elvis Divide, Port Brice, OH 24507-6802

Phone: +9779049645255

Job: Senior Healthcare Specialist

Hobby: Cycling, Model building, Kitesurfing, Origami, Lapidary, Dance, Basketball

Introduction: My name is Sen. Emmett Berge, I am a funny, vast, charming, courageous, enthusiastic, jolly, famous person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.